{
  "genesis": "2026-08-03",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-03T17:38:31.709037+00:00",
  "note": "FROZEN pre-registration (#976) \u2014 never edit; delete deliberately to regenerate.",
  "coaches": {
    "sleep_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. Lisa Park",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "During the first 7 days (Days 1\u20137), nightly time-in-bed will consistently reach the 7.5-hour target window defined by the 9:00 PM bedtime and 4:30 AM wake time, meaning the wearable will log at least 7.5 hours in bed on each of the 7 nights.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": "up",
          "window_days": 7,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        },
        {
          "claim_natural": "Over the first 14 days (Days 1\u201314), nightly HRV readings will trend upward toward the 50 ms biomarker target as the fixed 9:00 PM\u20134:30 AM sleep schedule takes hold and training volume is deliberately reduced in Week 1 with no failure sets, reflecting improving nocturnal recovery across the two-week window.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": "up",
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "low",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    },
    "nutrition_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. Marcus Webb",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "Daily calorie log entries will show adherence to the 1500 kcal/day target on at least 5 out of every 7 days during the first 14 days, as the structured 11:30am-7:30pm eating window mechanically constrains opportunity to eat outside those hours.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        },
        {
          "claim_natural": "Logged daily protein intake will meet or exceed the 170 g protein floor on at least 5 out of 7 days in the first 14 days, given that hitting 170 g within a 1500 kcal budget requires deliberate high-protein food selection at every meal and the plan explicitly sets this as a non-negotiable floor.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    },
    "training_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. Sarah Chen",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "During the first 14 days, all strength training sessions will be logged at reduced volume with no sets taken to failure, consistent with the week-1 ramp discipline rule and the explicit 'no failure sets' restriction that runs through Day 14.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "high",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        },
        {
          "claim_natural": "Over the first 14 days, weekly Zone 2 cardio accumulation \u2014 governed by RPE rather than a heart-rate device target for this opening period \u2014 will trend upward session-over-session as the 5 gym days plus daily ~3-mile walks build toward the 150 min/week Zone 2 target, with total Zone 2 minutes in week 2 exceeding those logged in week 1.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": "up",
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    },
    "mind_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. Nathan Reeves",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "Adherence to the 11:30am\u20137:30pm eating window will be maintained on at least 6 out of 7 days during the first week, as the structured ramp discipline and reduced-volume Week 1 design lowers the behavioral friction of adopting a new protocol simultaneously with new training demands.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 7,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        },
        {
          "claim_natural": "The 9:00 PM bedtime target will be logged as met on at least 5 out of 7 nights in the first 14 days; the fixed 4:30 AM wake time creates a hard backward anchor that makes the 9:00 PM target a concrete, checkable commitment rather than an aspiration, increasing early compliance.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    },
    "physical_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. Victor Reyes",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "Body weight will trend downward from the 321.6 lb start weight over the first 14 days, driven by the 1500 kcal/day deficit combined with daily ~3-mile walking and 5 gym days/week; a measurable decline on the scale is expected by Day 14.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "high",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        },
        {
          "claim_natural": "Daily walking of ~3 miles (roughly 6,000\u20137,000 steps) will be logged consistently on at least 5 out of every 7 days during the first 14 days, reflecting the plan's mandatory daily movement requirement and the reduced-intensity ramp discipline in Week 1.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    },
    "glucose_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. Amara Patel",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "Adherence to the 11:30am\u20137:30pm eating window (an 8-hour daily feeding window) will be maintained on at least 6 out of 7 days in the first week, as logged meal timestamps will consistently fall within that window, reflecting early compliance with the time-restricted eating protocol.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 7,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        },
        {
          "claim_natural": "Daily fiber intake logs will show the 25 g minimum fiber target being met on at least 5 out of 7 days during the first two weeks, as the structured 1500 kcal/day nutrition plan with an explicit 25 g fiber floor provides a concrete dietary anchor that supports consistent gut-derived metabolic signaling from the outset.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    },
    "labs_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. James Okafor",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "Resting heart rate (RHR) will trend downward over the first 14 days, consistent with the plan's biomarker target of 55 bpm, as the combination of 7.5-hour sleep (bed 9:00 PM, wake 4:30 AM) and daily Zone 2 walking (~3 miles after work) begins to reduce sympathetic load from Day 1.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        },
        {
          "claim_natural": "HRV will trend upward over the first 14 days toward the plan's biomarker target of 50 ms, driven by the structured sleep schedule (9:00 PM\u20134:30 AM, 7.5 h nightly) and the deliberately reduced training volume in Week 1 with no failure sets, limiting acute autonomic stress during the adaptation window.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": null,
          "window_days": 14,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    },
    "explorer_coach": {
      "coach_name": "Dr. Henning Brandt",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "claim_natural": "Across the first 7 days of the experiment, the daily calorie log will show at least one deviation from the 1500 kcal target, meaning the within-week coefficient of variation for logged daily intake will be greater than zero \u2014 establishing that Day 1\u20137 intake data cannot be treated as a fixed constant and must be modeled as a distribution rather than a point estimate for any downstream N=1 statistical analysis.",
          "metric": "",
          "direction": "up",
          "window_days": 7,
          "confidence": "high",
          "generator": "bedrock"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "hypothesis_id": "genesis_prereg_h1",
      "hypothesis": "On days when logged calories are at or under the 1500 kcal plan target, next-day weight will be lower than after days over target.",
      "domains": [
        "nutrition",
        "weight"
      ],
      "evidence": "Pre-registered at genesis from the plan itself: 1500 kcal/day target from a 321.6 lb start (config/user_goals.json); MacroFactor logs daily calories and Withings logs daily weight, so both arms are directly measurable.",
      "confirmation_criteria": "Mean next-day weight at least 0.1 lbs lower on adherent days within 30 days, 95% CI excluding 0.",
      "monitoring_window_days": 30,
      "confidence": "high",
      "actionable_if_confirmed": "Hold the 1,500 kcal baseline through the Foundation phase; escalate only if the trend stalls.",
      "test_spec": {
        "condition_metric": "calories",
        "condition_op": "<=",
        "condition_threshold": 1500,
        "outcome_metric": "weight_lbs",
        "direction": "lower",
        "min_effect": 0.1,
        "lag_days": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "hypothesis_id": "genesis_prereg_h2",
      "hypothesis": "On days reaching roughly 6,000+ steps (the 3-mile daily-movement floor), next-day Whoop recovery will be higher than after low-movement days.",
      "domains": [
        "movement",
        "recovery"
      ],
      "evidence": "Pre-registered at genesis from the plan itself: daily movement target '3 miles walking minimum (steps will vary by stride length, roughly 6,000-7,000 steps)' (config/user_goals.json); Apple Health logs steps and Whoop logs recovery daily.",
      "confirmation_criteria": "Next-day recovery at least 3 points higher on 6,000+ step days within 30 days, 95% CI excluding 0.",
      "monitoring_window_days": 30,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "actionable_if_confirmed": "Protect the daily walk as a recovery lever, not just an energy-expenditure line.",
      "test_spec": {
        "condition_metric": "steps",
        "condition_op": ">=",
        "condition_threshold": 6000,
        "outcome_metric": "recovery",
        "direction": "higher",
        "min_effect": 3,
        "lag_days": 1
      }
    }
  ]
}